El Niño Ski Season 2026-27: Where the Snow and Surf Will Hit, and How to Fly There Private

Every few winters the whole ski world starts saying the same two words, and this year it's louder than I've ever heard it: El Niño. NOAA is giving it an 83% chance of becoming the strongest El Niño on record this fall, and forecasters expect it to stay strong to very strong right through January to March 2027.

We've been flying people into the mountains for alot of years, and the phones always light up the same way in a big winter. Someone sees a storm on the forecast on Tuesday, and by Wednesday night they want to be in Mammoth or Telluride for first chair Friday. So here's our take on where the snow is actually forecast to land, which Ikon Pass and Epic Pass resorts look best, and how to fly in private when a storm hits. And because the ocean is already going off, we threw in the surf side too.

Why the 2026-27 El Niño Ski Season Is Different

• It's huge. The key Pacific temperature index hit +2.1°C in September, and NOAA's outlook gives near-100% odds of a very strong event through the end of the year. You can read the official NOAA updates yourself.

• It favors the south. A strong El Niño usually pushes the storm track south, which tends to favor California, the Southwest and southern Colorado over the northern Rockies.

• The big storms usually come later. El Niño's effect on the US is strongest from January through March. A slow November doesn't mean a bust season, so don't panic if Thanksgiving is thin.

• Elevation matters alot. Forecasters expect a warm winter overall, so lake-level Tahoe may see rain while the top of the lifts gets buried. High resorts are the safer bet.

One honest caveat: the last monster El Niño in 2015-16 didn't deliver the way everyone hoped, and the storm track ran further north than expected. A forecast is a lean, not a promise. That's exactly why being able to move fast matters.

Where the Snow Is Forecast to Land

Looking good

• The High Sierra: Mammoth and the upper mountains around Lake Tahoe have the strongest lean toward a big year.

• Southern Colorado: Telluride, Wolf Creek and the San Juans have the best setup in the state.

• Southern Utah and New Mexico: Brian Head and Taos sit right in the southern storm track.

• Mt. Bachelor and Whistler's upper mountain have a path to a solid season.

Manage expectations

• Northern Rockies: Big Sky, Sun Valley and Jackson Hole lean a little below normal.

• The Wasatch and central Colorado (Park City, Deer Valley, Vail, Aspen) look closer to normal. Still good skiing, just not the headline.

• Canadian Rockies and the Northeast lean low, and the East has a higher risk of thaws.

For the latest storm-by-storm calls, OpenSnow's winter forecast is what alot of us in the industry actually watch.

Ikon Pass Resorts in the El Niño Sweet Spot

• Mammoth Mountain: the headliner this year. Fly into Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH), about 15 minutes from the lifts. If weather closes it, Bishop (BIH) is about 45 minutes down Highway 395.

• Palisades Tahoe: fly into Truckee Tahoe (TRK), roughly 25–30 minutes away. Reno (RNO) is the backup, but you're then driving I-80 in a storm, which is the whole thing you're trying to avoid.

• Taos Ski Valley (limited days on Ikon): Taos Regional (SKX) is closest, and Santa Fe (SAF) is the usual backup, about an hour and a half away.

• Deer Valley: near-normal outlook, but still one of the easiest trips in the West. Fly into Heber Valley (HCR), about 20 minutes away.

• Aspen Snowmass (limited days on Ikon): fly into Aspen (ASE), right next to town. More on Aspen's quirks below.

Epic Pass Resorts in the El Niño Sweet Spot

• Heavenly: South Lake Tahoe Airport (TVL) is only minutes from the gondola. Reno is the bigger backup, about an hour away.

• Northstar and Kirkwood: Northstar is about 15 minutes from Truckee (TRK). Kirkwood is more remote, so plan your ground transfer from TVL ahead of time, especially with chain controls.

• Telluride (limited days on Epic): Telluride Regional (TEX) is about 10 minutes from town. Montrose (MTJ) is the backup, roughly an hour and a half by road.

• Park City: same as Deer Valley, Heber (HCR) is the move.

• Vail and Beaver Creek: Eagle County (EGE), about 35–45 minutes to Vail. Near-normal outlook, but it's the most reliable mountain airport in Colorado.

Not on either pass, but worth a mention: Wolf Creek (fly into Pagosa Springs or Durango) and Brian Head (Cedar City) are independent mountains sitting right in the El Niño bullseye.

How to Chase a Storm by Private Jet

This is where flying private actually earns its money. The airlines can't help you when the storm shifts 200 miles south two days out. Here's how we'd play it:

• Watch three to five days out, book 24–48 hours out. Most charter trips can come together on a day or two of notice, but the best aircraft go first on a big storm weekend.

• Land before the storm, ski after it. The best day is usually the first clear day after the snow stops. Fly in the day before the storm and you're waiting at the hotel when the roads close.

• Skip the passes. One flight replaces I-80 over Donner, Highway 395 or Red Mountain Pass in a blizzard with chain controls.

• Always have a Plan B airport. Mountain airports close in heavy snow and low clouds. Know the backup before you leave (MMH → Bishop, TEX → Montrose, ASE → Eagle or Rifle, TRK → Reno) and have the car service ready to meet you there.

• Be flexible with your return. If the storm lingers, an extra powder day beats a white-knuckle departure.

High-Altitude Airports, De-Icing and Weather

• Elevation: Telluride sits at about 9,070 feet, one of the highest airports in North America, with Aspen near 7,800 and Mammoth around 7,100. Thin air means longer takeoff rolls and weight limits on some aircraft, especially with a full load of skis and bags.

• De-icing: on a frosty morning the aircraft has to be de-iced before it can leave, and on a midsize jet that can add a few thousand dollars and some time. Ask your broker about hangar space overnight, it often pays for itself.

• Crew experience: Aspen and Telluride are mountain airports with special procedures. Plenty of operators require extra training to fly in. We only put people on crews who do it regularly.

• Aspen's wingspan limit: Aspen restricts larger aircraft by wingspan, so some of the biggest long-range jets can't use it. Your broker should catch that before you ever book.

Why a midsize jet beats a light jet into Telluride

We get this question every winter. A light jet like a Phenom 300 is perfect for alot of mountain trips, but at 9,000 feet on a short runway with six people, skis and boot bags, some light jets start running into weight limits, which can mean fewer passengers, less fuel or a fuel stop. A midsize or super midsize like a Citation Latitude or Challenger 350 has the performance margin, the bag space for ski gear, and the range to come in nonstop from the coasts. It usually costs a little more per hour, but it's the difference between bringing everyone's skis and shipping half of them.

Christmas, MLK and Presidents' Day Parking

• Ramp space is the real bottleneck. Over Christmas and New Year's, MLK weekend (Jan. 18, 2027) and Presidents' Day weekend (Feb. 15, 2027), the popular mountain airports fill their ramps. Some require reservations or prior permission just to land.

• Book early for holidays. Christmas week in Aspen, Telluride and Truckee books out weeks ahead. If you're going, lock in the jet and the parking when you lock in the house.

• Drop-and-go is an option. If parking is full, the jet can drop you and reposition to a nearby airport, then come back for you. It adds flight time, so ask for both prices.

• More on peak-season timing in our holiday private jet guide.

The Surf Side: West Coast Swell Season Is Already Going Off

The same warm Pacific that's feeding these storms has already given us one of the biggest surf years in a long time. Here in Orange County we watched it firsthand:

• June 9: a massive south swell sent waves of 20 feet plus into The Wedge in Newport Beach, with around a thousand people lined up on the sand. Locals called it the biggest in years.

• Early September: Hurricane Marie sent another long run of south swell up the coast, with 6–10 foot surf on south-facing beaches from San Diego to Malibu.

• October 10: big-wave surfers kicked off the Mavericks season in Half Moon Bay, and hurricane swells from Mexico have been reaching all the way up into Northern California.

• The ocean is literally higher. An El Niño-driven Kelvin wave has California water levels running 1–2 feet above tide predictions. With king tides around Nov. 24–26, Dec. 22–25 and Jan. 20–23, expect big surf, coastal flooding and beaches getting rearranged.

Winter is when it really gets serious. A southern storm track means bigger, more powerful swells. Point breaks and reefs usually handle it best, while alot of beach breaks just close out. Here's where people go when a swell hits:

Mavericks and Half Moon Bay

If you want to watch the best big-wave surfers on earth, Half Moon Bay Airport (HAF) sits right above Pillar Point Harbor, a few minutes from Mavericks. It works well for turboprops and many light jets. For bigger aircraft, San Jose (SJC) or Oakland (OAK) are about 45 minutes to an hour away. Watch from the bluffs and stay out of the marked safety areas, the waves have swept people off the rocks before.

The North Shore of Oahu

Big El Niño winters like 1982-83 and 1997-98 produced legendary surf in Hawaii. The Eddie Aikau Big Wave Invitational at Waimea Bay only runs when the waves are giant, so a season like this is when people start booking. From the West Coast it's about five to six hours to Honolulu (HNL), which takes a super midsize or heavy jet with the range to fly nonstop over water (light jets can't do it). The North Shore is about an hour's drive from the private terminal.

Baja

Winter northwest swells light up the Pacific side of Baja, from Todos Santos down to Cerritos near Cabo. Fly into Cabo San Lucas (CSL) or San José del Cabo (SJD) and you're surfing that afternoon. It's an easy add-on if you're already heading south for Christmas.

Only in California: Ski and Surf the Same Day

Here's the one we love. On a clear day after a storm you can ski Mammoth in the morning and surf Orange County at sunset. Mammoth to John Wayne (SNA) is about an hour in a King Air or PC-12, and turboprops are perfect for Mammoth's mountain airport. It's a ridiculous day, and in a winter like this one you might actually get the conditions to do it. If you're in Newport for the holidays, our boat parade guide has the rest of December covered.

What It Costs to Fly to the Mountains This Winter

• Turboprop (King Air, PC-12): about $6,000–$8,000 per flight hour. Great for Mammoth, Truckee and short Southern California hops. See turboprops.

• Light jet (Phenom 300, Citation CJ4): about $6,000–$7,000 per hour, perfect for most Western ski trips with 4–6 people. See light jets.

• Midsize and super midsize (Citation Latitude, Challenger 350): about $7,000–$9,000 per hour, our pick for Telluride and Aspen with a full group and gear. See super midsize jets.

• Heavy jet: about $8,000–$11,000 per hour, for big groups, coast-to-coast nonstop or Hawaii. See heavy jets.

• Holiday weeks price higher, and de-icing, overnight crew and parking fees add up in winter. Always ask for an all-in number. Flexible on dates? Empty legs pop up all winter as jets reposition out of the mountains.

El Niño Ski and Surf FAQs

Is 2026-27 an El Niño ski season?

Yes. NOAA has an El Niño Advisory in place and gives an 83% chance it becomes the strongest El Niño on record in October through December 2026, with a strong to very strong event expected to last through January to March 2027.

Which ski resorts benefit most from El Niño?

Strong El Niño winters tend to favor the southern storm track: the High Sierra (Mammoth and upper Lake Tahoe), southern Colorado (Telluride, Wolf Creek), southern Utah, New Mexico (Taos), plus Mt. Bachelor and Whistler's upper mountain. The northern Rockies and Northeast lean drier.

Which Ikon and Epic Pass resorts look best for El Niño 2026-27?

On the Ikon Pass, Mammoth, Palisades Tahoe and Taos stand out. On the Epic Pass, Heavenly, Northstar, Kirkwood and Telluride are in the favored zone.

What is the closest airport to Mammoth Mountain for private jets?

Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH), about 15 minutes from the lifts. Bishop (BIH) is the usual backup when weather closes Mammoth.

Can private jets fly into Telluride?

Yes. Telluride Regional (TEX) sits at about 9,070 feet and is about 10 minutes from town. Many groups use a midsize or super midsize jet for the performance at altitude, and Montrose (MTJ) is the backup airport.

How much does it cost to charter a private jet to a ski resort?

Roughly $6,000–$8,000 per flight hour for a King Air or PC-12, $6,000–$7,000 for a light jet, $7,000–$9,000 for a midsize or super midsize, and $8,000–$11,000 for a heavy jet, plus winter fees like de-icing and parking.

Does El Niño bring bigger surf to California?

Strong El Niño winters usually bring more powerful storms and bigger swells to California and Hawaii. 2026 has already seen huge surf, including 20-foot-plus waves at The Wedge in June and the start of the Mavericks season in October.

Ready When the Storm Is

If you've got an Ikon or Epic Pass and a flexible schedule, this could be the winter you remember. Tell us where you're based, how many people and how much gear, and which mountains or breaks you're watching. We'll line up the right aircraft, the backup airport and the parking, so when the storm shows up on the map you just go.

Get a private jet quote or call +1 (949) 969-3423, 24/7.

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